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Nov 9, 2016 · Because many traditional likely-voter models incorporate measures of enthusiasm into their calculus, 2016’s distinctly unenthused electorate – at least on the Democratic side – may have also wreaked some havoc with this aspect of measurement.
- Q&A: Political polls and the 2016 election - Pew Research Center
Courtney Kennedy, who chaired survey association AAPOR's...
- Q&A: Political polls and the 2016 election - Pew Research Center
Nov 13, 2020 · In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. From Vanuatu to Timbuktu, everyone knows what...
- Education Was Paramount
- What's Changing?
- Undecided Voters
- Can Trump Pull Off Another upset?
One of the key issues with 2016 polling was that much of it didn't account for a person's education. An examination of the 2016 electorate by Pew found that Whites with a four-year college degree or more education made up 30% of all validated voters, while White voters who had not completed college made up 44%. Only 38% of college-educated Whites s...
According to J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, the 2016 election showed that accounting for education is now as important as race and gender for conducting an accurate poll. He said "the biggest lesson, especially in the Trump era, is educational attainment as a predicto...
Predicting which candidate undecided voterswould turn out for was another critical issue in 2016 polling. Both Clinton and Mr. Trump were unpopular candidates, creating a large percentage of unpredictable voters close to the election. According to Keeter, about 15% of voters said they still hadn't decided who they would vote for late in the campaig...
Coleman described Mr. Trump's 2016 win as a "royal flush." Asked about what we could expect this year, he responded, "In cards you don't draw a royal flush every time." In addition to increasing party loyalty, the lack of a popular third-party candidate could also create stability in this year's race. According to Coleman, third party candidates to...
- CBS News
Oct 17, 2020 · The polls didn't predict Donald Trump's victory four years ago. Now, they are saying he will lose to Joe Biden. But a lot has changed since 2016.
May 31, 2017 · Nearly seven months after the presidential election, pollsters are still trying to answer a question that has rattled trust in their profession: Why did pre-election polls show Hillary Clinton...
Nov 14, 2016 · 1. The national polls weren't that off — they did predict more people would vote for Clinton. That's what happened. Donald Trump did win the most electoral votes. However, at latest count,...
May 4, 2017 · Courtney Kennedy, who chaired survey association AAPOR's task force on polling in the 2016 U.S. elections, discusses their findings and recommendations.
