Matteo
Search results
Jan 1, 2024 · The United States. Donald Trump will return to the White House (55 percent) Predicting a presidential race a year out is tough. As political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien have...
- Bryan Walsh
- Russia as We Know It May Not Survive The Coming Decade
- Expect A Chinese Military Offensive Against Taiwan
- US-Chinese Decoupling May Not Be as Dramatic as We Think It Will Be
- The United States Will Remain Powerful But Not Hegemonic
- Get Ready For Even Greater Global Volatility
- Democracies Will Face A Difficult Decade of Systemic Dangers
One of the most surprising takeaways was how many respondents pointed to a potential Russian collapse over the next decade—suggesting that the Kremlin’s war against Ukraine could precipitate hugely consequential upheaval in a great power with the largest nuclear-weapons arsenal on the planet. Nearly half (46 percent) of respondents expect Russia to...
Recently, US officials have been warningthat China could launch a military campaign to reunify Taiwan with the mainland on a faster-than-anticipated schedule between now and 2027. And our survey results support that dire assessment. Fully 70 percent of respondents agree—though just 12 percent strongly agree—that China will seek to forcibly retake T...
There has been a lot of talk about “decoupling,” or efforts to disentangle the US and Chinese economies. But the experts we surveyed delivered a clear verdict: Full-blown decoupling is very unlikely. Despite all the geopolitical tensions and tit-for-tat trade restrictions between the two countries, the most likely outcome (according to roughly 40 p...
Respondents generally expressed a belief in the United States’ staying power over the next ten years, though many envisioned a country preeminent in some domains of national clout but not others. Seven in ten foresee the United States continuing to be the world’s dominant military power by 2033—a notably high percentage given concerns about China’s...
One remarkable survey result is how many respondents expect the world to face additional economic and public-health perils in the coming decade. Seventy-six percent predict another global economic crisis on the scale of the 2008-2009 financial crisis by 2033. A further 19 percent say that there will be two or more such crises. Forty-nine percent fo...
Democracies are entering a dangerous decade in which they will need to contend with nationalist and populist forces and all the challenges associated with rapidly evolving technology. When asked which social movements they expected to have the most political influence worldwide over the next ten years, only 5 percent of respondents chose pro-democr...
One is to accelerate and to intensify some things. For example, consider population aging. Inevitably in a recession, we have fewer babies. The mere postponement of having babies accelerates population aging, so problems related to Social Security and pensions will arrive earlier.
May 4, 2022 · The United States is now facing the familiar precursors of a recession, including rising interest rates on the back of high inflation. The Federal Reserve is taking action, and its decisions will be critical to the length and severity of any recession.
- There will be more of us. The U.S. population today, at the start of 2020, numbers just over 331 million people. The U.S. is the third largest country in the world, outnumbered only by the two demographic billionaires, China and India, at just over 1.4 billion and just under 1.4 billion, respectively.
- The population will get older. The U.S. is getting older and it’s going to keep getting older. Today, there are over 74.1 million people under age 18 in the U.S. There are 56.4 million people age 65 and older.
- Racial proportions will shift. In 2020, non-Hispanic white people, hereafter called whites, are still the majority race in the U.S., representing 59.7% of the U.S. population.
Apr 8, 2021 · The US Intelligence Community has issued a survey of where the world may end up in 2040. It warns of a political volatility and growing international competition or even conflict.
Jan 12, 2024 · Nearly 12 percent of respondents overall expect the United States to break up by 2034—a much lower percentage than those who thought the same about Russia, as noted above, but a higher percentage than those who said the same about other powers such as China (7 percent) and India (6 percent).
