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  1. Mar 11, 2016 · Boom Bust Boom: Directed by Bill Jones, Terry Jones, Ben Timlett. With Terry Jones, George Magnus, Robert Shiller, Zvi Bodie. Terry Jones guides us through the history and the nature of the economic boom-bust cycle and why people repeatedly ignore it to their sorrow.

    • (560)
    • Documentary, History
    • Bill Jones, Terry Jones, Ben Timlett
    • 2016-03-11
  2. Boom Bust Boom is a documentary about mankind's history of speculative bubbles. It was written, directed, and presented by former Monty Python member Terry Jones in his final film appearance before his death in 2020.

  3. Mar 7, 2016 · Subscribe to INDIE & FILM FESTIVALS: http://bit.ly/1wbkfYgSubscribe to TRAILERS: http://bit.ly/sxaw6hSubscribe to COMING SOON: http://bit.ly/H2vZUnLike us on...

    • 2 min
    • 27.2K
    • Rotten Tomatoes Indie
    • Overview
    • Key Points
    • Four phases of an economic cycle
    • Cycling your investments through the phases
    • What sectors tend to perform better in each phase of the economic cycle?
    • The bottom line

    Four phases to monitor.

    Written byKarl Montevirgen

    Karl Montevirgen

    Karl Montevirgen is a professional freelance writer who specializes in the fields of finance, cryptomarkets, content strategy, and the arts. Karl works with several organizations in the equities, futures, physical metals, and blockchain industries. He holds FINRA Series 3 and Series 34 licenses in addition to a dual MFA in critical studies/writing and music composition from the California Institute of the Arts.

    Fact-checked byThe Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica

    The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica

    •The economic cycle generally comprises four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and recovery.

    •The duration of economic cycles varies, making the phases difficult to time.

    Although there are numerous theories explaining what causes economic cycles, most generally agree on the four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and recovery.

    Phase 1: Expansion. During the expansion phase, interest rates are often on the low side, making it easier for consumers and businesses to borrow money. The demand for consumer goods is growing, and businesses begin ramping up production to meet consumer demand. To increase production, businesses hire more workers or invest capital to expand their physical infrastructure and operations. Generally, corporate profits begin to rise along with stock prices. Gross domestic product (GDP) also begins rising as the economy gets its “boom” cycle underway.

    Phase 2: Peak. At this stage, the economy reaches a maximum rate of growth. As consumer demand rises, there’s a point at which businesses may no longer be able to ramp up production and supply to match the increasing demand. Some companies may find it necessary to expand production capabilities, which entails more spending or investment. Businesses may also begin experiencing a rise in production costs (including wages), prompting some to transfer these costs over to the consumer via higher prices.

    Consequently, businesses may begin to see a “topping-off” in profits despite charging higher prices. Other businesses will see decreasing profits due to higher manufacturing (input) costs or higher wage demands. Overall, inflationary pressures start to build up, or “bubble,” and the economy begins to overheat.

    Typically, the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates to combat rising prices—making it more expensive to borrow money—in an attempt to cool the economy.

    Phase 3: Contraction. Then the economic contraction begins. In this stage, corporate profits and consumer spending, particularly on discretionary (e.g., luxury) items, begins to fall. Stock values also decline as investors move their investments to “safer” assets such as Treasury bonds and other fixed-income assets, plus good ole cash. GDP contracts due to the decrease in spending. Production slows to match falling demand. Employment and income can also decline as businesses temporarily freeze hiring or resort to laying off workers. Overall, economic activity slows, stocks enter a bear market, and a recession typically follows.

    Can you use the economic cycle model as an actionable map to plot out investments? It’s a tempting prospect. After all, if you can identify the phases, all you have to do is match your market entries and exits to the start of each phase, right?

    If only investing were that simple.

    What makes it tricky is that the cycles vary in length. For example, from 1857 to 2020, we’ve seen a peak-to-trough cycle as short as two months and as long as 65 months, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

    Economic cycle models are actionable, but it takes plenty of research, plus constant monitoring and the unavoidable hit-or-miss approach in timing your investments. It also helps to know which sectors tend to perform better in each phase of the economic cycle.

    One way you can rebalance your portfolio during each phase of the economic cycle is to invest in sector-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In this way, you can gain a bit more exposure to certain sectors, actively managing your portfolio across the cycle’s proverbial seasons.

    Your washing machine runs through its cycles according to a preset schedule in terms of the order, the timing, and the length of each cycle. The business cycle? Not so much. There are too many variables that prevent its precise timing from being predictable.

    However, the market has enough consistencies to allow us to anticipate and confirm certain sector outcomes during each phase of the economic cycle, give or take a few variations (and errors) in performance.

    Expansion: Sectors fueling the engines of economic growth. When the economy is expanding, economic growth and expectations of continued growth are on the rise. Information technology, financials, communications, and consumer discretionary sectors tend to outperform as they help fuel the segments of the economy that drive expansion.

    Peak: Investing at the summit. When the economy approaches its peak phase, demand and consumption begin to outpace production and supply, inflation tends to heat up, and the Fed typically begins raising interest rates to slow the economy.

    Financials tend to outperform as banks benefit directly from higher interest rates. Energy and materials also perform well, as both continue to fuel growth even at the peak. Investors who are anticipating the next phase of the cycle may choose to take early positions in sectors or industries that are relatively “inelastic” (meaning, people need their products and services regardless of the state of the economy).

    There’s a saying that time in the market is much better than timing the market. Although you don’t want to place big and over-concentrated bets on sectors based solely on market timing, you can optimize your portfolio returns through careful and nuanced rebalancing. Using the economic cycle as a model and map for rebalancing your investments can help you navigate large-scale market changes with a greater deal of certainty.

    Just bear in mind that the economy is a dynamic process whose driving factors are rife with particularities and variations. This means that you can follow the map, but don’t forget to keep your eye on the road, and always mind your surroundings.

  4. Filmmaker Terry Jones utilizes animation, puppetry and music to examine the worldwide economic collapse of 2008.

    • (14)
    • Documentary
    • Bill Jones, Terry Jones, Ben Timlett
    • Boom Bust Boom1
    • Boom Bust Boom2
    • Boom Bust Boom3
    • Boom Bust Boom4
    • Boom Bust Boom5
  5. Co-written by Jones and Kocken and featuring John Cusack, Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman, Robert J Shiller and Paul Krugman, the film is part of a global movement to change the economic system through education to protect the world from boom and bust.

  6. With contributions from John Cusack, journalists Paul Mason and John Cassidy plus leading experts including Andy Haldane, the Chief Economist of the Bank of England and Nobel Prize winners Daniel Kahneman, Robert J. Shiller and Paul Krugman, Boom Bust Boom explains economics to everyone. 14+.