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The Monty Hall Problem: With Kim Beom-soo, Ewan Chung, Kim Dong-young, Jung Hae-in. Relentless hazing shifts Cho Suk-bong's once-warm personality. Riddled with responsibilities, an enlistee jumps the fence at the dead of night.
- (228)
- 2021-08-27
- Action, Crime, Drama
- 52
- Play The Game
- Understanding Why Switching Works
- Understanding The Game Filter
- Overcoming Our Misconceptions
- The More You Know…
- Visualizing The Probability Cloud
- Generalizing The Game
- Summary
- Appendix
- Other Posts in This Series
You’re probably muttering that two doors mean it’s a 50-50 chance. Ok bub, let’s play the game: Try playing the game 50 times, using a “pick and hold” strategy. Just pick door 1 (or 2, or 3) and keep clicking. Click click click. Look at your percent win rate. You’ll see it settle around 1/3. Now reset and play it 20 times, using a “pick and switch”...
That’s the hard (but convincing) way of realizing switching works. Here’s an easier way: If I pick a door and hold, I have a 1/3 chance of winning. My first guess is 1 in 3 — there are 3 random options, right? If I rigidly stick with my first choice no matter what, I can’t improve my chances. Monty could add 50 doors, blow the other ones up, do a v...
Let’s see why removing doors makes switching attractive. Instead of the regular game, imagine this variant: 1. There are 100 doors to pick from in the beginning 2. You pick one door 3. Monty looks at the 99 others, finds the goats, and opens all but 1 Do you stick with your original door (1/100), or the other door, which was filtered from 99? (Try ...
Assuming that “two choices means 50-50 chances” is our biggest hurdle. Yes, two choices are equally likely when you know nothingabout either choice. If I picked two random Japanese pitchers and asked “Who is ranked higher?” you’d have no guess. You pick the name that sounds cooler, and 50-50 is the best you can do. You know nothing about the situat...
Here’s the general idea: The more you know, the better your decision. With the Japanese baseball players, you know more than your friend and have better chances. Yes, yes, there’s a chance the new rookie is the best player in the league, but we’re talking probabilitieshere. The more you test the old standard, the less likely the new choice beats it...
Here’s how I visualize the filtering process. At the start, every door has an equal chance — I imagine a pale green cloud, evenly distributed among all the doors. As Monty starts removing the bad candidates (in the 99 you didn’t pick), he “pushes” the cloud away from the bad doors to the good ones on that side. On and on it goes — and the remaining...
The general principle is to re-evaluate probabilities as new information is added. For example: 1. A Bayesian Filter improves as it gets more information about whether messages are spam or not. You don’t want to stay static with your initial training set of data. 2. Evaluating theories. Without any evidence, two theories are equally likely. As you ...
Here’s the key points to understanding the Monty Hall puzzle: 1. Two choices are 50-50 when you know nothing about them 2. Monty helps us by “filtering” the bad choices on the other side. It’s a choice of a random guess and the “Champ door” that’s the best on the other side. 3. In general, more information means you re-evaluate your choices. The fa...
Let’s think about other scenarios to cement our understanding: Your buddy makes a guess Suppose your friend walks into the game after you’ve picked a door and Monty has revealed a goat — but he doesn’tknow the reasoning that Monty used. He sees two doors and is told to pick one: he has a 50-50 chance! He doesn’t know why one door or the other shoul...
The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, based nominally on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall. The problem was originally posed (and solved) in a letter by Steve Selvin to the American Statistician in 1975.
1 day ago · The Monty Hall problem is a famous, seemingly paradoxical problem in conditional probability and reasoning using Bayes' theorem. Information affects your decision that at first glance seems as though it shouldn't.
Jan 21, 2007 · The Monty Hall Problem is a famous (or rather infamous) probability puzzle. Ron Clarke takes you through the puzzle and explains the counter-intuitive answer. Put simply: If you pick a goat...
- 6 min
- 8M
- Newcolator
Let's now tackle a classic thought experiment in probability, called the Monte Hall problem. And it's called the Monty Hall problem because Monty Hall was the game show host in Let's Make a Deal, where they would set up a situation very similar to the Monte Hall problem that we're about to say.
- 7 min
- Sal Khan
Aug 27, 2021 · That Monty Hall Problem Episode 4 of D.P. begins with Jun-Ho granted leave from military service and heading in to see his Father in hospital. Based on previous flashbacks, he’s a serial abuser and is well known to hit Jun-Ho’s Mother.
